ThinkTankWeekly

President John F. Kennedy Fakes a Fever—The Cuban Missile Crisis, Day Five

CFR | 2026-10-20 | diplomacy

Topics: Europe, Nuclear, Russia, United States

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English Summary

The article analyzes how President Kennedy used a personal deception (faking illness) to regain control of the decision-making process during the escalating Cuban Missile Crisis. Key evidence from the ExComm debate showed a tension between immediate military action (air strikes) and measured escalation (naval blockade). Kennedy ultimately adopted a 'hedged bet' strategy, ordering preparation for a blockade while retaining the option of an air strike, thus maintaining flexible military options. This historical analysis implies that managing high-stakes geopolitical crises requires combining robust military readiness with nuanced diplomacy, such as signaling potential missile withdrawals to manage escalation and preserve international credibility.

中文摘要

本文分析了肯尼迪總統如何在升級的古巴飛彈危機期間,利用個人策略(假裝生病)來重新掌握決策流程。從「行政委員會」(ExComm)的辯論中獲得的關鍵證據顯示,在即時軍事行動(空襲)與審慎升級(海軍封鎖)之間存在張力。肯尼迪最終採納了「備選策略」(hedged bet)——下令準備封鎖,同時保留空襲的選項,從而維持了靈活的軍事選擇。這項歷史分析暗示,管理高風險的地緣政治危機,需要結合強大的軍事準備與細膩的外交手腕,例如傳達潛在的飛彈撤除意圖來管理升級,並維護國際信譽。

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