The article argues that recent executive overreach and politicization have severely undermined established norms of U.S. civil-military relations. To restore professional standards, the incoming Congress must actively exercise its oversight powers, moving beyond mere criticism to demanding transparency in defense policy and personnel decisions. Key reforms include enforcing meritocratic promotion processes, requiring documented justification for senior officer removals, and preventing the partisan use of the military. These actions are crucial for bolstering public trust and ensuring the military remains a nonpartisan instrument of civilian control.
Why Investors May Be Wrong to Hang Their Hopes on Flávio Bolsonaro
English Summary
The CFR warns that investors should view market optimism regarding Flávio Bolsonaro's fiscal promises with skepticism, arguing that structural and political hurdles make deep austerity difficult to enact. While Bolsonaro has pledged significant spending cuts to improve Brazil's high debt trajectory, his plan is challenged by mandatory spending, the need to satisfy voters with social benefits, and populist campaign pledges. Historically, populist leaders struggle to maintain fiscal discipline, suggesting that initial market gains may be unsustainable. Failure to deliver on these promises could increase government debt risk, leading to higher yields, currency depreciation, and potential financial instability for Brazil.
中文摘要
戰略外交關係理事會（CFR）警告，投資者應對市場對於弗拉維奧·博索納羅（Flávio Bolsonaro）財政承諾的樂觀情緒保持懷疑態度，認為結構性與政治障礙使得實施深度緊縮財政極為困難。儘管博索納羅承諾大幅削減支出以改善巴西高債務軌跡，但其計畫仍面臨強制性支出、滿足選民社會福利的需求，以及民粹式競選承諾等多重挑戰。歷史經驗顯示，民粹主義領導人難以維持財政紀律，這暗示初期市場漲幅可能難以持續。若無法兌現這些承諾，可能會增加政府債務風險，進而導致殖利率上升、貨幣貶值，並可能引發巴西的金融不穩定。
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