The article argues that recent executive overreach and politicization have severely undermined established norms of U.S. civil-military relations. To restore professional standards, the incoming Congress must actively exercise its oversight powers, moving beyond mere criticism to demanding transparency in defense policy and personnel decisions. Key reforms include enforcing meritocratic promotion processes, requiring documented justification for senior officer removals, and preventing the partisan use of the military. These actions are crucial for bolstering public trust and ensuring the military remains a nonpartisan instrument of civilian control.
What Questions Should Leaders Ask Before Going to War?
English Summary
The article argues that military interventions rarely achieve the quick, decisive victories anticipated by policymakers, frequently leading to protracted and costly quagmires. Historical examples, ranging from the War of 1812 to modern conflicts like Ukraine, demonstrate that initial assumptions of success are often undermined by complex variables and unforeseen resistance. Strategically, the piece advises that leaders must adopt a rigorous, preemptive questioning framework—such as defining the theory of victory and assessing the conflict's fit with broader national goals—to challenge assumptions and prepare for inevitable setbacks. This disciplined approach aims to mitigate predictable errors and improve the odds of avoiding catastrophic strategic miscalculations.
中文摘要
本文論述，軍事干預行動很少能達到政策制定者預期中的迅速、決定性勝利，反而經常導致曠日費時且成本高昂的困境。從1812年戰爭到烏克蘭等現代衝突的歷史先例證明，最初的成功假設往往會被複雜變數和意料之外的抵抗所削弱。從戰略角度來看，本文建議領導者必須採用一套嚴謹的、預先質疑的框架——例如定義「勝利理論」並評估衝突與更廣泛國家目標的契合度——來挑戰既有假設，並為不可避免的挫折做好準備。這種紀律化的方法旨在減輕可預測的錯誤，從而提高避免災難性戰略誤判的機率。
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