The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
Wildfires and extreme heat show climate change is now Europe’s biggest security threat
English Summary
The Chatham House report argues that climate change represents Europe's greatest systemic security threat, citing recent extreme heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires that have caused massive economic losses, infrastructure failures, and excess deaths. These environmental shocks disrupt critical services (like energy supply) and increase vulnerability to non-conventional threats, forcing military resources to divert personnel away from traditional defense roles. To counter this, the report mandates a comprehensive security approach: treating climate adaptation as core national security spending, accelerating decarbonization to address root causes, and building robust societal resilience through coordinated civil preparedness.
中文摘要
查塔姆館的報告指出，氣候變遷代表著歐洲最大的系統性安全威脅。該報告援引近期極端熱浪、乾旱和野火等事件，指出這些現象已造成巨大的經濟損失、基礎設施故障以及過度死亡人數。此類環境衝擊擾亂了關鍵服務（如能源供應），並增加了對非傳統威脅的脆弱性，迫使軍事資源將人員從傳統防禦角色轉移開來。為應對此挑戰，報告要求採取全面的安全策略：將氣候適應視為核心國家安全支出；加速脫碳以解決根本原因；並透過協調的民用準備建立強大的社會韌性。
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