The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Gulf states can contain the threat from Iran and Israel. But they’ll need help
English Summary
The analysis argues that both Iran and Israel operate on a zero-sum logic of regional hegemony, generating systemic instability through asymmetric warfare or unilateral military action. This dynamic threatens the Gulf states, whose core strategy is based on a 'positive-sum' model prioritizing trade, development, and stability. To counter this persistent threat, international partners must fundamentally review their engagement with these powers and assist the GCC in strengthening collective security mechanisms. Crucially, maintaining free navigation through vital waterways like the Strait of Hormuz must become an urgent priority to mitigate economic coercion.
中文摘要
該分析指出，伊朗和以色列都奉行零和博弈的區域霸權邏輯，透過非對稱戰或單邊軍事行動產生系統性不穩定。這種動態威脅到海灣國家，因為這些國家的核心策略是建立在優先考慮貿易、發展與穩定的「正和」模式之上。為應對持續存在的此類威脅，國際夥伴必須根本性地重新審視其與這些權力的參與方式，並協助海灣合作委員會（GCC）強化集體安全機制。至關重要的是，維持霍爾木茲海峽等關鍵水道的自由航行，必須成為緩解經濟脅迫的緊急優先事項。
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