The article argues that modern conflicts are increasingly defined by attrition, driven by three strategic gaps: the difference between nominal military power and usable capacity; the difficulty of achieving breakthroughs in a technologically advanced battlefield; and the detachment of military means from clear political objectives. Evidence from Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrates that sustained logistics, rapid technological adaptation, and proxy networks are now more decisive than sheer military size. For policymakers, this implies a strategic shift away from seeking short, decisive victories toward preparing for prolonged, high-cost engagements, requiring a focus on sustainable supply chains and defining concrete, attainable political end-states.
How should Ukraine prepare for peace while fighting the war?
English Summary
The Chatham House analysis highlights that while Ukraine sustains its democratic institutions during wartime, significant challenges remain regarding institutional capacity and social cohesion. Key evidence points to martial law and widespread internal/external displacement jeopardizing electoral readiness and the preservation of pluralism. For policy, Kyiv must proactively develop mechanisms—such as ensuring voting access for displaced citizens and protecting checks and balances—to mitigate post-conflict instability and guard against potential Russian interference in the democratic transition.
中文摘要
查塔姆學會的分析指出，儘管烏克蘭在戰時維持了其民主制度，但在機構能力和社會凝聚力方面仍存在重大挑戰。關鍵證據顯示，戒嚴令以及大規模的內部/外部流離失所，正在危及選舉準備度與多元主義的維護。從政策層面來看，基輔必須主動發展機制——例如確保流離失所公民的投票權和保護制衡機制——以緩解戰後不穩定性，並防範潛在的俄羅斯干預民主轉型。
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