The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
If Ukraine is winning the war, why did Zelenskyy fire his defence minister?
English Summary
The Chatham House analysis examines the political fallout from President Zelenskyy's dismissal of his defense minister, framing it as a major internal convulsion coinciding with Ukraine’s deepening drone strikes into Russian territory. The discussion argues that while Kyiv may be regaining military initiative, the power struggle poses a significant risk to centralized authority and strategic coherence. Experts analyze whether these internal political tensions undermine Ukraine’s long-term ability to sustain offensive operations or force Russia toward negotiations. Ultimately, maintaining momentum requires not only continued military success but also stabilizing governance and solidifying unified leadership.
中文摘要
查塔姆學會的分析檢視了總統澤倫斯基解僱國防部長所引發的政治後果，將此定性為一場重大的內部動盪，且恰逢烏克蘭對俄羅斯領土進行的無人機打擊日益加劇。討論指出，儘管基輔可能正在重新掌握軍事主動權，但這場權力鬥爭卻對中央集權和戰略連貫性構成重大風險。專家們分析了這些內部政治張力是否會削弱烏克蘭長期維持攻勢行動的能力，或迫使俄羅斯走向談判。最終而言，維持發展動力不僅需要持續的軍事成功，更需穩定治理結構並鞏固統一領導層。
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