Despite significant damage to its naval fleet, shipyards, and production facilities from recent strikes, Iran is expected to quickly reconstitute its military industrial base. This reconstitution relies heavily on importing dual-use components, such as machine tools, drone parts, and marine engines, through alternative routes like Pakistan or China. To counter this threat, the report advises that policymakers must extend sanctions mechanisms—particularly 'no reexport' clauses—and proactively engage third countries with direct access to Iran. Furthermore, monitoring allied firms dealing with key suppliers in China and Turkey is crucial to slowing down and raising the cost of necessary procurements.
‘We’re just trying to earn enough to buy rice’: Living through the energy shock in Manila
English Summary
The Philippines faces acute economic vulnerability due to global energy shocks stemming from geopolitical conflicts in the Persian Gulf and potential Strait of Hormuz closures. Rising fuel prices, amplified by the nation's high reliance on imported oil and a weakening peso, are causing severe inflationary spirals that destabilize key sectors like agriculture and public transport. Although the government has implemented emergency measures, structural damage to global energy infrastructure and compounding threats—such as climate-driven agricultural disruption ('Super El Niño')—suggest sustained economic turbulence. Policymakers must therefore prepare for potential job losses, continued price volatility, and increased social instability.
中文摘要
由於波斯灣地區和霍爾木茲海峽潛在關閉的地緣政治衝突，菲律賓面臨嚴重的全球能源衝擊，導致經濟脆弱性加劇。燃料價格上漲，結合國家對進口石油的高度依賴以及本幣貶值，正引發惡化的通貨膨脹螺旋式上升，從而動搖農業和公共運輸等關鍵部門的穩定性。儘管政府已實施了緊急措施，但全球能源基礎設施的結構性損害，加上氣候變遷帶來的複合威脅（如「超級厄爾尼諾」導致的農作物歉收），預示著經濟將持續動盪不穩。因此，政策制定者必須為潛在的工作崗位流失、持續的價格波動和社會不穩定性做好準備。
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