The article argues that modern conflicts are increasingly defined by attrition, driven by three strategic gaps: the difference between nominal military power and usable capacity; the difficulty of achieving breakthroughs in a technologically advanced battlefield; and the detachment of military means from clear political objectives. Evidence from Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrates that sustained logistics, rapid technological adaptation, and proxy networks are now more decisive than sheer military size. For policymakers, this implies a strategic shift away from seeking short, decisive victories toward preparing for prolonged, high-cost engagements, requiring a focus on sustainable supply chains and defining concrete, attainable political end-states.
Hungary’s reset with Ukraine is good news for European deterrence
English Summary
The article argues that Hungary’s emerging 'reset' with Ukraine represents a significant strategic positive for European deterrence. By resolving the Transcarpathia minority dispute, the new government shifts from outright obstruction to conditional cooperation, removing a major political impediment to Kyiv's EU accession talks. This development reduces Russia's ability to exploit internal divisions within the EU and NATO by demonstrating that Europe can manage disputes without succumbing to strategic paralysis. Ultimately, this process is crucial for restoring credibility to the continent’s collective resolve regarding Ukraine's future.
中文摘要
本文論述，匈牙利與烏克蘭之間正在形成的「重置」（reset）具有重要的戰略積極意義，能強化歐洲的威懾力。透過解決特蘭斯卡爾派亞少數族裔爭端，新政府的角色已從完全阻撓轉向有條件的合作，消除了阻礙基輔參與歐盟加入談判的主要政治障礙。這一發展降低了俄羅斯利用歐盟和北約內部分歧的能力，證明歐洲能夠在不陷入戰略癱瘓的情況下管理爭端。最終而言，這個過程對於恢復大陸在烏克蘭未來問題上的集體決心和信譽至關重要。
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