The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
Francis Fukuyama on his new political memoir: ‘In the Realm of the Last Man’
English Summary
Fukuyama's new memoir argues that the trajectory of liberal democracy is facing significant strain, necessitating a major revision of his earlier optimistic theories on global history. He draws evidence from recent geopolitical shocks—including the War on Terror and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—to demonstrate growing challenges to democratic institutions across the West. The central finding is that external threats are compounded by internal crises, requiring democracies to prioritize rebuilding public trust and political legitimacy. For policy strategists, this implies that maintaining Western stability requires a focused effort on institutional resilience and addressing domestic fragmentation alongside traditional geopolitical concerns.
中文摘要
福山（Fukuyama）的最新回憶錄論述指出，自由民主體系的發展軌跡正面臨重大壓力，這要求他必須大幅修正其早期關於全球歷史的樂觀理論。文章援引了近期的地緣政治衝擊——包括「反恐戰爭」和俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭等事件——作為證據，證明西方各國的民主制度正遭遇日益嚴峻的挑戰。核心論點是，外部威脅與內部危機相互疊加，要求民主國家必須將重建公眾信任和政治合法性置於首位。對於政策策略制定者而言，這意味著維持西方穩定需要的不僅是傳統的地緣政治考量，更需專注於提升制度韌性並解決國內的碎片化問題。
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