The article argues that modern conflicts are increasingly defined by attrition, driven by three strategic gaps: the difference between nominal military power and usable capacity; the difficulty of achieving breakthroughs in a technologically advanced battlefield; and the detachment of military means from clear political objectives. Evidence from Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrates that sustained logistics, rapid technological adaptation, and proxy networks are now more decisive than sheer military size. For policymakers, this implies a strategic shift away from seeking short, decisive victories toward preparing for prolonged, high-cost engagements, requiring a focus on sustainable supply chains and defining concrete, attainable political end-states.
Why demining the Strait of Hormuz will be difficult – but also presents an opportunity
English Summary
While reopening the Strait of Hormuz is critical for global shipping, clearing the estimated 80 mines will be an extremely difficult and complex technical challenge due to advanced mine types and current traffic congestion. Successful demining requires sustained international cooperation among major powers (including the US, UK, and EU) because no single nation possesses the necessary resources or trust to complete the task alone. Strategically, Iran's participation in clearing the mines offers a vital opportunity for Tehran to demonstrate commitment to de-escalation. Ultimately, the article argues that technical success hinges on achieving a sustained political solution: all parties must commit to an extended cessation of hostilities and guarantee safe passage for mine countermeasures.
中文摘要
雖然重新開放霍爾木茲海峽對於全球航運至關重要，但清除預計的 80 枚地雷將是一個極其困難且複雜的技術挑戰，原因在於先進的地雷類型和目前的交通擁堵狀況。成功的排雷工作需要主要大國（包括美國、英國和歐盟）之間持續的國際合作，因為沒有單一國家擁有獨立完成此任務所需的資源或信任度。從戰略角度來看，伊朗參與清除地雷提供了特爾阿方展示其致力於降級升溫的重要機會。最終，本文論點指出，技術上的成功取決於實現一個持久的政治解決方案：所有相關方必須承諾延長停止敵對行動，並確保排雷行動的安全通道。
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