The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
What would a ceasefire in Ukraine mean for Europe and the world?
English Summary
The Chatham House analysis argues that a ceasefire in Ukraine will not automatically stabilize the region, but rather raise complex questions regarding long-term security, Ukrainian sovereignty, and Russia's underlying ambitions. Key concerns include predicting future conflict risks, managing post-war stabilization efforts, and addressing potential shifts in US commitment to European defense. Consequently, Europe must proactively strengthen its own deterrence capabilities and develop robust security frameworks now to ensure that a pause in fighting does not merely delay, but genuinely reduce, the risk of future instability.
中文摘要
查塔姆學會的分析指出，烏克蘭停火並不能自動穩定該地區，反而引發了關於長期安全、烏克蘭主權以及俄羅斯潛在野心等複雜問題。主要的擔憂包括預測未來衝突風險、管理戰後穩定化工作，以及應對美國對歐洲防禦承諾可能出現的轉變。因此，歐洲必須現在就積極強化自身的威懾能力並建立穩健的安全框架，以確保停火不僅是延遲了衝突，而是真正降低了未來不穩定的風險。
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