The next Strait of Hormuz crisis could be even worse
Chatham House | 2026-06-26 | energy
Topics: Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Trade
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English Summary
Despite an interim peace deal for the Strait of Hormuz, regional maritime security remains fragile and uncertain. The process of reopening is hampered by slow demining efforts and unresolved administrative issues, while simultaneously, the Houthis in Yemen retain the threat capability to close Bab al-Mandab, impacting alternative shipping routes through the Red Sea and Suez Canal. Future chokepoint closures would trigger severe global ripple effects, driving up insurance premiums, increasing transportation costs, and causing inflationary spikes across energy markets. This instability threatens disproportionately impact vulnerable import-dependent economies, potentially forcing nations to negotiate bilateral transit agreements with regional powers.
中文摘要
儘管霍爾木茲海峽已達成臨時和平協議，但該區域的海洋安全仍處於脆弱且不確定的狀態。重啟航運進程受困於緩慢的除雷工作和尚未解決的管理問題；同時，葉門的胡塞武裝派別仍保留著封閉馬連紅海峽（Bab al-Mandab）的能力，這會影響經由紅海和蘇伊士運河的替代航線。未來若發生關鍵咽喉點關閉事件，將引發嚴重的全球漣漪效應，推高保險費率、增加運輸成本，並導致能源市場出現通脹飆升。這種不穩定性對高度依賴進口的脆弱經濟體影響尤為嚴重，甚至可能迫使各國與區域大國協商雙邊過境協議。
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