The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
‘Happy vassal’ or ‘strategic hedging’? Europe’s hard choices as NATO crumbles
English Summary
The article argues that the post-war transatlantic security order provided by the US is dissolving, rendering Europe’s reliance on NATO increasingly precarious due to American transactional behavior. Key evidence includes recent US threats regarding territorial claims (like Greenland) and military maneuvers, which demonstrate a willingness to treat alliances as negotiable assets rather than shared values. Consequently, achieving genuine European security autonomy requires moving beyond mere defense spending; the strategy must focus on building three interconnected pillars: industrial self-sufficiency, technological sovereignty (e.g., independent satellite constellations), and energy decoupling from US markets.
中文摘要
本文指出，美國所提供的戰後跨大西洋安全秩序正在瓦解，由於美國的交易性行為（transactional behavior），歐洲對北約（NATO）的依賴日益岌岌可危。關鍵證據包括近期美國關於領土主張（如格陵蘭）和軍事演習所發出的威脅，這些都表明了將聯盟視為可協商資產而非共同價值觀的意願。因此，要實現真正的歐洲安全自主性，不能僅止於增加國防開支；戰略必須著重建立三大相互關聯的支柱：工業自給自足、技術主權（例如獨立衛星星座），以及能源脫鉤美國市場。
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