The article argues that modern conflicts are increasingly defined by attrition, driven by three strategic gaps: the difference between nominal military power and usable capacity; the difficulty of achieving breakthroughs in a technologically advanced battlefield; and the detachment of military means from clear political objectives. Evidence from Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrates that sustained logistics, rapid technological adaptation, and proxy networks are now more decisive than sheer military size. For policymakers, this implies a strategic shift away from seeking short, decisive victories toward preparing for prolonged, high-cost engagements, requiring a focus on sustainable supply chains and defining concrete, attainable political end-states.
The US–Iran memorandum of understanding nods to international law. Can that be taken seriously?
English Summary
The Chatham House analysis concludes that the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding is legally ambiguous and politically fragile, functioning more as a face-saving device than a robust peace treaty. While the agreement mandates significant US concessions—including removing military threats and lifting sanctions—it lacks formal binding mechanisms and relies on vague commitments regarding reconstruction funds or maritime passage fees. The MoU forces the US to nominally adhere to international law (like non-interference) and rely on multilateral institutions, contradicting its recent actions. Consequently, analysts warn that key provisions, such as regional stability from non-signatories like Israel, are unlikely to materialize, suggesting continued geopolitical risk despite the paper deal.
中文摘要
查塔姆學會（Chatham House）的分析結論指出，美伊諒解備忘錄在法律上存在模糊性且政治上極為脆弱，其功能更接近於一種「面子工程」，而非一份穩健的和平條約。儘管該協議要求美國做出重大讓步——包括移除軍事威脅和解除制裁——但它缺乏正式的約束機制，僅依賴關於重建資金或海運通行費等方面的模糊承諾。此備忘錄迫使美國在名義上遵守國際法（例如不干涉原則），並依賴多邊機構，這與其近期的實際行動存在矛盾。因此，分析人士警告稱，關鍵條款，例如來自以色列等未簽署國的區域穩定性，不太可能實現，暗示儘管有此份文件協議，地緣政治風險仍將持續存在。
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