The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
Uzbekistan: assessing 10 years of rule under Mirziyoyev
English Summary
Uzbekistan has successfully leveraged Mirziyoyev's tenure to significantly boost regional cooperation and economic liberalization. However, the analysis suggests that deep-seated authoritarian structures, coupled with persistent issues of corruption and nepotism, continue to severely impede meaningful political reform. While external factors like the Ukraine war have influenced policy, the country’s future development path remains constrained by this internal tension between opening up economically and maintaining political control. Policymakers should anticipate continued mixed signals: strong economic growth alongside limited democratic progress.
中文摘要
烏茲別克斯坦成功地利用了米爾濟約耶夫執政期間，顯著提升了區域合作與經濟自由化。然而，分析指出，根深蒂固的威權結構，加上持續存在的腐敗和裙帶關係問題，仍嚴重阻礙了有意義的政治改革。儘管外部因素（如烏克蘭戰爭）影響了政策制定，但該國未來的發展軌跡仍然受限於這種內部張力：即在經濟開放與維持政治控制之間的矛盾。政策制定者應預期持續出現複雜且不一致的信號：一方面是強勁的經濟增長，另一方面則是有限的民主進展。
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