The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
Managing the Long-Term Russian Threat to Europe
English Summary
The report argues that Russia views its conflict as a long-term, systemic challenge to the Euro-Atlantic West, suggesting preparation for future aggression against NATO members once active fighting in Ukraine subsides. This threat is underpinned by Russia's continued military overhaul and economic mobilization following the protracted war. To counter this enduring risk, Europe must urgently manage its transition toward an "Allied-led defense" model. Policy efforts must balance communicating strong resolve to Moscow while avoiding new vulnerabilities, ensuring a stable security posture that supports favorable outcomes for Kyiv.
中文摘要
該報告論述，俄羅斯將其衝突視為對歐亞大西洋西部（Euro-Atlantic West）的長期、系統性挑戰，暗示在烏克蘭戰事平息後，正在準備針對北約成員國發動未來的侵略行動。此類威脅建立在俄羅斯持續進行軍事重整和經濟動員的基礎之上。為應對這種持久風險，歐洲必須緊急管理其向「盟國主導防禦」模式過渡。政策努力必須在向莫斯科傳達堅定決心與避免產生新的弱點之間取得平衡，從而確保穩定的安全態勢，支持基輔的最佳利益。
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