Despite significant damage to its naval fleet, shipyards, and production facilities from recent strikes, Iran is expected to quickly reconstitute its military industrial base. This reconstitution relies heavily on importing dual-use components, such as machine tools, drone parts, and marine engines, through alternative routes like Pakistan or China. To counter this threat, the report advises that policymakers must extend sanctions mechanisms—particularly 'no reexport' clauses—and proactively engage third countries with direct access to Iran. Furthermore, monitoring allied firms dealing with key suppliers in China and Turkey is crucial to slowing down and raising the cost of necessary procurements.
Egypt’s New Authoritarian Republic
English Summary
The analysis argues that Egypt's current regime, established by Sisi's 2014 military takeover, has devolved into a brittle autocracy that lacks a coherent national vision. Key evidence points to the military's overextension, which forces it to replace civilian institutions and crowd out private enterprise, while simultaneously struggling to maintain control over key territories like Sinai. Consequently, the regime is depicted as being too weak to be a regional power but too large to fail, forcing it into a position of dependency on international and regional patrons. This suggests that external actors must adjust their strategy, recognizing Egypt's diminished strategic autonomy and increased vulnerability.
中文摘要
該分析指出，埃及當前政權自西西（Sisi）於2014年發動軍事政變後建立，已退化為一個缺乏連貫國家願景的脆弱獨裁政權。關鍵證據顯示，軍方過度擴張，這迫使它取代民用機構並擠壓私人企業，同時也難以維持對西奈等關鍵領土的控制。因此，該政權被描繪為既不足以成為區域強權，但又過於龐大難以崩潰，使其處於依賴國際和區域贊助者的地位。這暗示外部行為者必須調整其策略，承認埃及戰略自主性的減弱和脆弱性的增加。
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