ThinkTankWeekly

Syria’s Imperiled Transition

Foreign Affairs | 2026-09-22 | economy

Topics: Middle East, Trade, United States

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English Summary

Syria’s post-Assad transition is critically imperiled by a severe economic crisis, despite the new government's political gains. The core problem is that the leadership's implementation of harsh austerity measures and economic liberalization has exacerbated the cost-of-living crisis, pushing the majority of Syrians into extreme poverty. Key evidence points to the government's failure to manage the economy, evidenced by massive tariff hikes (e.g., electricity and fuel) and the inability to provide basic necessities, fueling public discontent. Consequently, the primary strategic implication is that without immediate, targeted economic stabilization and governance reform, the country faces a high risk of widespread unrest and a complete derailment of the post-conflict recovery.

中文摘要

敘利亞在阿薩德政權後的過渡期,儘管新政府在政治上取得進展,但卻因嚴重的經濟危機而面臨致命的困境。核心問題在於,政府推行嚴苛的緊縮開支措施和經濟自由化,加劇了生活成本危機,導致大多數敘利亞民眾陷入極度貧困。關鍵證據指出,政府未能有效管理經濟,表現為大規模的關稅提高(例如電力和燃料)以及無法提供基本生活必需品,從而激化了民怨。因此,主要的戰略意涵是:若不立即進行有針對性的經濟穩定和治理改革,該國將面臨大規模動亂和後衝突復原計劃徹底脫軌的高風險。

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