The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.
The Future of Palestine
English Summary
The analysis highlights that despite temporary ceasefires, the prospect of a durable resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains highly remote due to political fragmentation and continued instability in Gaza and the West Bank. Key reasoning emphasizes that achieving statehood requires practical steps, including rebuilding effective governance structures and fostering Palestinian unity, rather than relying solely on external diplomatic intervention. For policy makers, this suggests that immediate strategic focus must shift toward stabilizing local conditions and supporting viable governance models in Gaza to build a foundation for future political progress.
中文摘要
本分析指出，儘管存在臨時停火，但由於政治碎片化以及加沙和西岸持續的不穩定局勢，以色列－巴勒斯坦衝突實現持久解決方案的前景仍然非常渺茫。核心論點強調，達成國家地位需要實質性的步驟，包括重建有效的治理結構和促進巴勒斯坦的團結，而非僅依賴外部外交干預。對於政策制定者而言，這表明當前的戰略重點必須轉向穩定當地局勢，並在加沙支持可行的治理模式，從而為未來的政治進展奠定基礎。
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