ThinkTankWeekly

How Iran Changed War

Foreign Affairs | 2026-09-25 | defense

Topics: AI, China, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, Ukraine, United States

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English Summary

Iran's resistance and counterattacks demonstrated that the age of "precise mass"—relying on high volumes of cheap, accurate munitions—has fundamentally changed modern warfare. Iran achieved this by leveraging accessible, low-cost drones and missiles, proving that weaker states can effectively challenge stronger powers, even those with advanced, expensive weaponry. This shift mandates that major military powers must abandon an over-reliance on exquisite, expensive systems and instead scale low-cost offensive and defensive capabilities. Failure to adapt doctrine and organizational structures to this new reality threatens global military deterrence and strategic stability.

中文摘要

伊朗的抵抗和反擊行動證明了「精準批量化」(precise mass)時代已徹底改變了現代戰爭。此戰略模式依賴大量、低成本且精準的彈藥。伊朗透過利用易得且低成本的無人機和導彈,證明了較弱小國家能夠有效挑戰強權,甚至包括那些擁有先進且昂貴武器的國家。這一轉變要求主要軍事強國必須摒棄對精緻、昂貴系統的過度依賴,轉而發展低成本的攻防能力。若未能將軍事教義和組織結構適應到這一新現實,將威脅到全球的軍事威懾和戰略穩定性。

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