The article argues that recent executive overreach and politicization have severely undermined established norms of U.S. civil-military relations. To restore professional standards, the incoming Congress must actively exercise its oversight powers, moving beyond mere criticism to demanding transparency in defense policy and personnel decisions. Key reforms include enforcing meritocratic promotion processes, requiring documented justification for senior officer removals, and preventing the partisan use of the military. These actions are crucial for bolstering public trust and ensuring the military remains a nonpartisan instrument of civilian control.
Recession: The Real Reasons Economies Shrink and What to Do About It
English Summary
The article challenges traditional economic theory, arguing that recessions are less likely to be caused by intrinsic financial contradictions (like credit bubbles) and more often triggered by external negative shocks. Drawing on historical data, the analysis suggests that major downturns frequently result from geopolitical conflicts, climate failures, or pandemics interrupting periods of expansion. Because it is difficult for policymakers to empirically distinguish between internal market excesses and exogenous crises, strategic planning must shift focus. Therefore, policy responses should prioritize resilience against unpredictable global shocks—such as energy price volatility stemming from conflict—rather than solely managing domestic financial cycles.
中文摘要
本文挑戰了傳統經濟理論，主張衰退期不太可能源於內生的金融矛盾（如信貸泡沫），而更常是由外部負面衝擊所觸發。分析援引歷史數據指出，重大的經濟低潮往往來自地緣政治衝突、氣候崩潰或大流行病等外生因素對擴張期的中斷。由於政策制定者難以從實證層面上區分內部市場過度膨脹與外部危機，戰略規劃必須轉變焦點。因此，政策應將重點放在提升抵禦不可預測的全球衝擊（例如源於衝突的能源價格波動）的韌性上，而非僅限於管理國內金融週期。
Related Entries
-
1.
-
2.
The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
-
3.
China's economic strategy is characterized by a persistent 'economics of denial,' prioritizing massive state-directed investment in advanced technology over addressing weak domestic consumption. This approach is rooted in a flawed belief that controlling physical capital will automatically generate productivity and wage growth, ignoring the structural imbalance where domestic demand consistently falls short of supply. This overinvestment and underconsumption model is unsustainable. Consequently, Beijing's policies will continue to generate global deflationary pressures and escalating trade friction, necessitating a fundamental pivot toward consumption-led growth for long-term stability.
-
4.
The Blue Wave signals significant voter frustration with cost of living and inflation, giving Congress a mandate to prioritize affordability and cost-reduction measures. Economically, the rapid build-out of AI data centers is creating localized stress, driving up skilled labor wages and straining resources, while also facing constraints from power grids and potential local regulatory backlash. Policymakers must manage this 'sequencing issue'—addressing rising costs before full productivity gains from AI can materialize—and anticipate shifts in global data center infrastructure as the market matures.
-
5.
The built environment workforce, comprising 15.3 million workers across 95 occupations, is foundational to modern infrastructure and economic stability. While highly paid, the workforce suffers from significant demographic imbalances, being disproportionately white and male, and often lacking clear career progression pathways. To prevent project delays and cost overruns, policy must mandate that capital asset owners treat labor market forecasting as core to project planning. Strategic interventions are required to strengthen career pipelines through robust apprenticeships, improve retention, and actively recruit younger and more diverse workers.