ThinkTankWeekly

How to Navigate the Shifting International Order

Foreign Affairs | 2026-02-05 | europe

Topics: AI, China, Climate, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

Visit original source

ThinkTankWeekly provides a curated entry and summary only. Full text and PDF remain on the publisher's website.

English Summary

President Stubb argues that the current global environment is undergoing a 'transition' rather than a 'rupture,' warning that abandoning multilateralism risks descending into chaotic spheres of influence. He posits that the existing international order, built on rules and institutions, has been highly beneficial and must be reformed to give greater agency to non-founding powers (e.g., expanding the UN Security Council). For policy, the key strategy is to strengthen transatlantic cooperation—particularly in defense and technology—while simultaneously reforming global institutions to ensure that multilateralism remains the dominant framework, thereby stabilizing the global system.

中文摘要

斯圖布總統主張,當前全球環境正經歷的是一場「轉型」(transition),而非「崩潰」(rupture),並警告稱,放棄多邊主義極有可能導致陷入混亂的勢力範圍。他提出,現有的國際秩序是建立在規則和制度基礎上的,其效益極大,因此必須進行改革,以賦予非創設國(例如擴大聯合國安全理事會)更大的權能。在政策層面,關鍵策略是加強跨大西洋合作——特別是在國防和技術領域——同時改革全球制度,確保多邊主義仍是主導框架,從而穩定全球體系。

Related Entries

  1. 1.
    2026-07-24 | defense | 2026-W30 | Topics: Indo-Pacific, United States

    The White House (via OMB) strongly protests Congressional efforts within the FY 2027 NDAA to prohibit the purchase of warships from foreign shipyards. The Administration argues that these restrictions undermine national security by limiting flexibility and hindering its strategy of leveraging allied yards, such as in the 'Finland model,' to drive investment into U.S. shipbuilding capacity. This signals a significant policy shift toward integrating international partners into advanced naval construction, suggesting the Pentagon is prepared to bypass traditional domestic build requirements for future combat vessels.

    Read at USNI

  2. 2.
    2026-07-24 | china_indopacific | 2026-W30 | Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Nuclear, Russia, United States

    The Western Pacific remains a highly active theater defined by sustained U.S.-led military exercises and escalating great power competition. Key evidence includes continuous joint operations, such as RIMPAC 2026 in Hawaii and the deployment of CSGs into the South China Sea, juxtaposed with increased naval activity from both China (PLAN task groups) and Russia near Japan's critical straits. These movements underscore a strategic push by non-allied powers to assert presence and challenge regional norms. Policy implications dictate that allied nations must maintain robust multilateral cooperation and interoperability to safeguard freedom of navigation and manage escalating tensions in the Indo-Pacific.

    Read at USNI

  3. 3.
    2026-07-24 | middle_east | 2026-W30 | Topics: AI, China, Europe, Middle East, NATO, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, United States

    The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.

    Read at Foreign Affairs

  4. 4.
    2026-07-24 | economy | 2026-W30 | Topics: Middle East, Trade, United States

    The article argues that current market borrowing costs are rising independently of the Federal Reserve's policy stance, challenging the assumption that the Fed controls all rates. Evidence shows significant increases in key rates—such as 2-year Treasuries and mortgages—even while the effective federal funds rate remains steady. This divergence occurs because market rates reflect complex factors like inflation expectations, credit risk, and geopolitical volatility, which are outside the central bank's direct control. Policymakers should therefore recognize that sustainable rate moderation requires credible disinflation and disciplined government budgets, rather than relying solely on Fed intervention.

    Read at CATO

  5. 5.
    2026-07-24 | china_indopacific | 2026-W30 | Topics: China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, NATO, Taiwan, Trade, United States

    Despite recent trade setbacks, the U.S. retains fundamental structural economic leverage over China, particularly in high-tech sectors and intermediate goods. While Beijing can temporarily weaponize specific resources like rare earths, these chokepoints are vulnerable to diversification efforts by the West. The article argues that the most effective strategy is not unilateral action but coordinated multilateral pressure from U.S. allies across Asia and Europe. Washington must therefore coordinate its economic statecraft with partners to maximize damage to China’s export-dependent model.

    Read at Foreign Affairs