ThinkTankWeekly

Russia’s Widening War on Europe

Foreign Affairs | 2026-10-08 | europe

Topics: AI, China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

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English Summary

Russia's hybrid warfare campaign against Europe has escalated significantly, moving beyond traditional disinformation and cyberattacks toward undeniable, kinetic actions that border on conventional warfare. The core finding is that Russia is abandoning plausible deniability to test NATO's Article 5 commitment, aiming to undermine alliance unity while Europe increases its support for Ukraine. This shift presents a major challenge, as NATO struggles to formulate a clear, collective deterrence response to non-conventional threats. Consequently, the alliance requires a renewed and coordinated strategic effort, particularly from the United States, to ensure that Russia faces a tangible and escalating cost for its aggression.

中文摘要

俄羅斯對歐洲發動的混合戰役已顯著升級,其行動已超越傳統的虛假資訊和網路攻擊,轉向了接近傳統戰爭的、難以否認的動能行動。核心發現是,俄羅斯正在放棄可否認性,以測試北約第五條承諾,旨在削弱聯盟的團結,尤其是在歐洲加強對烏克蘭的支持背景下。這一轉變帶來了重大挑戰,因為北約難以針對非傳統威脅制定出清晰、集體的威懾回應。因此,聯盟需要進行一次全面且協調的戰略努力,特別是來自美國的努力,以確保俄羅斯為其侵略行為付出可觀且不斷升級的代價。

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