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Abiding Influence: Presidents, Nationalist Beliefs, and U.S. Policy in the Asia-Pacific, 1898–1972

Foreign Affairs | 2026-10-20 | china_indopacific

Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Russia, Taiwan, United States

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English Summary

This analysis argues that U.S. foreign policy in the Asia-Pacific is primarily dictated by the presidents' deeply ingrained nationalist beliefs regarding American identity and global mission. Using historical examples, such as the annexation of the Philippines and the opening to China, the article demonstrates that major policy shifts are driven by domestic ideological imperatives, rather than solely by external geopolitical threats. Crucially, the U.S.-China rapprochement was facilitated not by Cold War concerns, but by successfully incorporating China's anxieties regarding Japan and Taiwan into the diplomatic framework. Policymakers should therefore prioritize analyzing the domestic ideological underpinnings and perceived national missions of U.S. leadership to accurately predict strategic shifts in the region.

中文摘要

本分析認為,美國在亞太地區的外交政策主要受制於總統們關於美國身份和全球使命感的深植民族主義信念。文章援引歷史案例,例如菲律賓的吞併和對中國的開放,證明重大的政策轉變並非單純由外部地緣政治威脅所驅動,而是源於國內的意識形態內在要求。至關重要的是,美中關係的和解並非源於冷戰的考量,而是成功地將中國對日本和台灣的焦慮納入外交框架之中。因此,政策制定者應將分析美國領導層的國內意識形態基礎和感知到的國家使命,作為預測該地區戰略轉變的優先重點。

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