The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.
Ruining Revolution: How International Islamist and Salafi Forces Have Held Libya Hostage Since 2011
English Summary
The analysis argues that the political trajectory of militant Islamist groups in Libya is defined by their approach to power. Unlike the Libyan Muslim Brotherhood, which attempted to seize political control and contributed to government collapse through overreach, the Salafist groups eschewed formal politics. Instead, they built indispensable power by focusing on providing local services, particularly security, thereby controlling key militias across the country. This strategic non-involvement positions them not as kingmakers, but as powerful spoilers, capable of destabilizing the country regardless of which political faction ultimately prevails.
中文摘要
該分析指出，利比亞激進伊斯蘭主義團體的政治軌跡，取決於其掌握權力的方式。與試圖奪取政治控制權並因權力過度擴張導致政府崩潰的利比亞穆斯林兄弟會不同，薩拉夫派團體則規避了正式的政治參與。相反，他們透過專注於提供地方服務，特別是安全保障，從而控制了全國關鍵的民兵組織，建立了不可或缺的權力基礎。這種戰略性的不介入，使他們的角色並非是決定政局走向的關鍵推手（kingmakers），而是強大的破壞力量（spoilers），無論最終哪個政治派系佔了上風，他們都具備造成國家不穩定的能力。
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