ThinkTankWeekly

Who Needs the Bomb?

Foreign Affairs | 2026-10-20 | defense

Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Taiwan, Ukraine, United States

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English Summary

The debate over nuclear deterrence centers on whether recent conventional conflicts prove the weapons are irrelevant. The analysis argues that while nuclear weapons are not all-purpose deterrents, their primary function remains preventing catastrophic, all-out war. Crucially, the threat of nuclear capability has emerged as a powerful, personal deterrent for vulnerable regimes against decapitation strikes. Policymakers must therefore resist abandoning modernization efforts, balancing strategic nuclear assets with improved conventional defenses to maintain stability.

中文摘要

圍繞核威懾的辯論核心在於,近期常規衝突是否證明了核武器已失去相關性。本分析認為,儘管核武器並非萬能的威懾手段,但其主要功能仍是阻止災難性的全面戰爭。至關重要的是,核能力的威脅已成為針對脆弱政權的「 decapitation strikes」( decapitation 攻擊)的強大個人威懾。因此,政策制定者必須抵制放棄現代化努力,透過平衡戰略核資產與改善的常規防禦,以維持整體穩定。

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