ThinkTankWeekly

The Nuclear Deal That Could Save NATO

Foreign Affairs | 2026-10-16 | europe

Topics: Europe, Indo-Pacific, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Ukraine, United States

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English Summary

European allies increasingly view the United States' commitment to NATO's extended nuclear deterrence as conditional, leading to a profound crisis of trust in the transatlantic security relationship. The breakdown of the historical US-European nuclear bargain has prompted several European nations to seriously consider acquiring their own nuclear arsenals, challenging the existing nonproliferation regime. The core policy challenge is establishing a renewed, robust nuclear bargain that grants European members greater ownership and responsibility in deterrence, thereby restoring the foundational trust necessary for collective defense. Failure to achieve this risks uncontrolled nuclear proliferation and destabilizes the entire European security architecture.

中文摘要

歐洲盟國日益認為美國對北約延伸核威懾的承諾是有條件的,這導致了跨大西洋安全關係的信任危機。歷史性的美歐核威懾協議的瓦解,促使數個歐洲國家開始認真考慮自行取得核武庫,挑戰了現有的不擴散體制。核心政策挑戰在於建立一個新的、穩健的核威懾協議,讓歐洲成員國在威懾方面擁有更大的主權和責任,從而恢復集體防禦所需的基礎信任。若未能達成此目標,恐將導致失控的核武擴散,並動搖整個歐洲安全架構。

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