The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.
Palestinians in Israel After the Arab Spring: The Political Impact of Regional Protest and Fragmentation
English Summary
The political outlook of Palestinians in Israel is undergoing a significant shift, moving away from large-scale national causes following the disillusionment caused by the Arab Spring's collapse and regional sectarian violence. Evidence suggests that younger generations are abandoning traditional political engagement, both Arab and Israeli, in favor of pragmatic, local efforts focused on improving economic well-being. This trend is characterized by a growing reliance on family and clan structures rather than formal political parties or movements. Policymakers must recognize that political influence is decentralizing, requiring strategic focus on local economic development and community stability rather than traditional national-level political interventions.
中文摘要
巴勒斯坦人在以色列的政治前景正在經歷重大轉變。由於阿拉伯之春失敗以及區域宗派暴力所造成的幻滅，他們正逐漸脫離大規模的民族性訴求。證據顯示，年輕一代正在放棄傳統的政治參與，無論是阿拉伯式的還是以色列式的，轉而偏好務實的、地方性的努力，重點放在改善經濟福祉。這一趨勢的特點是，他們越來越依賴家族和氏族結構，而非正式的政黨或運動。政策制定者必須認識到，政治影響力正在去中心化，因此需要將戰略重點放在地方經濟發展和社區穩定上，而非傳統的國家層級政治干預。
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