The article argues that recent executive overreach and politicization have severely undermined established norms of U.S. civil-military relations. To restore professional standards, the incoming Congress must actively exercise its oversight powers, moving beyond mere criticism to demanding transparency in defense policy and personnel decisions. Key reforms include enforcing meritocratic promotion processes, requiring documented justification for senior officer removals, and preventing the partisan use of the military. These actions are crucial for bolstering public trust and ensuring the military remains a nonpartisan instrument of civilian control.
The New Forever War
English Summary
The conflict between the United States and Iran is projected to enter a perpetual, low-intensity stalemate, as neither side can achieve its ultimate strategic goals. This deadlock is sustained because both belligerents believe that de-escalation represents a loss of critical leverage, while full-scale escalation is too militarily and economically costly. Consequently, the conflict will continue as a grinding, protracted confrontation characterized by calibrated costs rather than a decisive military victory or lasting peace deal. Policy must therefore adjust its strategy to managing this persistent status quo, abandoning expectations of a swift resolution.
中文摘要
預計美國與伊朗之間的衝突將進入一種持續的、低強度的僵局，因為雙方均無法達成其終極戰略目標。這種僵局之所以持續，是因為雙方交戰方都認為，降級代表著失去關鍵的戰略籌碼，而全面升級則在軍事和經濟上成本過高。因此，該衝突將持續成為一場磨人、曠日持久的對抗，其特點是「可計算的成本」，而非決定性的軍事勝利或持久的和平協議。政策制定必須因此調整其策略，以應對這種持續的現狀，並放棄期待迅速解決的可能性。
Related Entries
-
1.
-
2.
The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
-
3.
China's economic strategy is characterized by a persistent 'economics of denial,' prioritizing massive state-directed investment in advanced technology over addressing weak domestic consumption. This approach is rooted in a flawed belief that controlling physical capital will automatically generate productivity and wage growth, ignoring the structural imbalance where domestic demand consistently falls short of supply. This overinvestment and underconsumption model is unsustainable. Consequently, Beijing's policies will continue to generate global deflationary pressures and escalating trade friction, necessitating a fundamental pivot toward consumption-led growth for long-term stability.
-
4.
The Blue Wave signals significant voter frustration with cost of living and inflation, giving Congress a mandate to prioritize affordability and cost-reduction measures. Economically, the rapid build-out of AI data centers is creating localized stress, driving up skilled labor wages and straining resources, while also facing constraints from power grids and potential local regulatory backlash. Policymakers must manage this 'sequencing issue'—addressing rising costs before full productivity gains from AI can materialize—and anticipate shifts in global data center infrastructure as the market matures.
-
5.
The built environment workforce, comprising 15.3 million workers across 95 occupations, is foundational to modern infrastructure and economic stability. While highly paid, the workforce suffers from significant demographic imbalances, being disproportionately white and male, and often lacking clear career progression pathways. To prevent project delays and cost overruns, policy must mandate that capital asset owners treat labor market forecasting as core to project planning. Strategic interventions are required to strengthen career pipelines through robust apprenticeships, improve retention, and actively recruit younger and more diverse workers.