The article argues that recent executive overreach and politicization have severely undermined established norms of U.S. civil-military relations. To restore professional standards, the incoming Congress must actively exercise its oversight powers, moving beyond mere criticism to demanding transparency in defense policy and personnel decisions. Key reforms include enforcing meritocratic promotion processes, requiring documented justification for senior officer removals, and preventing the partisan use of the military. These actions are crucial for bolstering public trust and ensuring the military remains a nonpartisan instrument of civilian control.
Maximum Pressure on Iran Will Fail
English Summary
The article argues that decades of 'maximum pressure'—whether military or economic—will fail because the Islamic Republic of Iran is fundamentally resilient and contradictory in its foreign policy. Key evidence shows that sanctions have proven symbolic, while recent conflicts taught Tehran how to survive massive strikes while retaining enough capability (e.g., missile/drone programs) to impose steep costs on global choke points like the Strait of Hormuz. Consequently, the U.S. has severely weakened its own ability to exert pressure, making a return to traditional coercive tactics impossible. Policy-wise, Washington must abandon this failed playbook and undergo a fundamental strategic reckoning regarding how it engages with Iran.
中文摘要
本文論述，數十年來實施的「最大壓力」政策——無論是軍事還是經濟層面——終將失敗。其核心原因在於伊朗伊斯蘭共和國具備根本性的韌性，且其外交政策本身存在內在矛盾。關鍵證據顯示，制裁措施已淪為象徵性姿態；而近期衝突則教會了德黑蘭如何在承受大規模打擊的同時，仍保留足夠的能力（例如飛彈/無人機計畫），以對霍爾木茲海峽等全球要衝施加巨大成本。因此，美國自身執行壓制的能力已嚴重削弱，使得重回傳統強制戰術變得不可能。從政策層面來看，華盛頓必須放棄這套失敗的劇本，並就其如何應對伊朗問題進行根本性的戰略重新評估。
Related Entries
-
1.
-
2.
The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
-
3.
China's economic strategy is characterized by a persistent 'economics of denial,' prioritizing massive state-directed investment in advanced technology over addressing weak domestic consumption. This approach is rooted in a flawed belief that controlling physical capital will automatically generate productivity and wage growth, ignoring the structural imbalance where domestic demand consistently falls short of supply. This overinvestment and underconsumption model is unsustainable. Consequently, Beijing's policies will continue to generate global deflationary pressures and escalating trade friction, necessitating a fundamental pivot toward consumption-led growth for long-term stability.
-
4.
The Blue Wave signals significant voter frustration with cost of living and inflation, giving Congress a mandate to prioritize affordability and cost-reduction measures. Economically, the rapid build-out of AI data centers is creating localized stress, driving up skilled labor wages and straining resources, while also facing constraints from power grids and potential local regulatory backlash. Policymakers must manage this 'sequencing issue'—addressing rising costs before full productivity gains from AI can materialize—and anticipate shifts in global data center infrastructure as the market matures.
-
5.
The built environment workforce, comprising 15.3 million workers across 95 occupations, is foundational to modern infrastructure and economic stability. While highly paid, the workforce suffers from significant demographic imbalances, being disproportionately white and male, and often lacking clear career progression pathways. To prevent project delays and cost overruns, policy must mandate that capital asset owners treat labor market forecasting as core to project planning. Strategic interventions are required to strengthen career pipelines through robust apprenticeships, improve retention, and actively recruit younger and more diverse workers.