The China-Russia partnership is a highly consequential geopolitical alignment driven by a shared goal of countering U.S. hegemony and reshaping the international order into a multipolar system. While not a formal alliance, this relationship is strengthened by Russia's increasing economic reliance on China following Western sanctions, which allows Beijing to leverage its influence. Policymakers should note that while the partnership projects deep solidarity (as seen in high-level summits), it remains complex and limited by mutual mistrust and competing strategic interests. This enduring alignment poses a significant challenge to U.S. interests and requires continued diplomatic vigilance.
Iran Is Losing Iraq
English Summary
The analysis argues that Iran's long-standing political and military influence in Iraq is rapidly diminishing due to internal shifts and growing Iraqi resentment over foreign interference. Key evidence includes prominent Iranian-backed militias beginning to disarm or integrate with state forces, signaling a loss of independent power and control within the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). This shift suggests that Baghdad is prioritizing national sovereignty and centralizing authority, allowing Iraq to potentially pivot its economic and political alignment toward the wider Gulf region. The primary implication is that Iran will lose its ability to use Iraq as a stable staging ground for projecting regional power, significantly weakening its broader 'axis of resistance.'
中文摘要
該分析指出，由於內部結構變化以及伊拉克人民對外來干預日益增長的怨氣，伊朗在伊拉克的長期政治和軍事影響力正在迅速衰退。關鍵證據包括一些主要的伊朗支持民兵組織開始解除武裝或與國家武力整合，這標誌著其在『人民動員部隊』（PMF）內部獨立權力和控制力的流失。這一轉變暗示巴格達正將國家主權和中央集權置於首位，使伊拉克有可能將其經濟和政治重心轉向更廣泛的海灣地區。主要的政策意涵是，伊朗將失去利用伊拉克作為投射區域力量的穩定跳板的能力，這將極大地削弱其更宏觀的『抵抗軸心』。
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