ThinkTankWeekly

How Russia Sees the World Now

Foreign Affairs | 2026-10-21 | europe

Topics: China, Europe, Middle East, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

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English Summary

Russia's strategic thinking has undergone a significant shift, pivoting from viewing the United States as its primary rival to identifying Europe as its principal geopolitical adversary. This shift, termed "castling," dictates that Moscow must now direct coercive pressure against European decision-making centers and infrastructure. Furthermore, Russia is moving beyond traditional nuclear deterrence, developing a doctrine of Nonnuclear Strategic Deterrence (NNSD) utilizing advanced conventional weapons. For Western powers, understanding this evolved strategic mindset is crucial, as it dictates that future negotiations and de-escalation efforts must account for a primary conflict theater centered on the European continent.

中文摘要

俄羅斯戰略思維已發生重大轉變,其焦點已從將美國視為主要競爭對手,轉向將歐洲視為主要的地緣政治對手。這種被稱為「陣地轉移」(castling)的轉變意味著莫斯科現在必須將其的強制壓力導向歐洲的決策中心和基礎設施。此外,俄羅斯正在超越傳統的核威懾,發展一種利用先進常規武器的「非核戰略威懾」(NNSD)學說。對於西方大國而言,理解這種演變的戰略思維至關重要,因為它規定了未來的談判和降級努力必須考慮以歐洲大陸為核心的衝突戰區。

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