ThinkTankWeekly

Iran’s Long War

Foreign Affairs | 2026-10-15 | middle_east

Topics: China, Europe, Middle East, Nuclear, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

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English Summary

The analysis concludes that the conflict between Iran and the United States is trapped in a sustainable, low-grade stalemate, dubbed a "New Forever War." This deadlock persists because both parties view continued confrontation as less costly than making painful compromises. Iran, in particular, believes the U.S. fundamentally misjudges its capabilities and resolve, necessitating periodic escalation to challenge the Western narrative of Iranian weakness. Strategically, this suggests that diplomatic solutions are unlikely in the near term, requiring policymakers to prepare for a cyclical pattern of confrontation and heightened regional instability.

中文摘要

分析指出,伊朗與美國之間的衝突陷入了一種可持續的、低烈度的僵局,被稱為「新永恆戰爭」。這種僵局之所以持續,是因為雙方都認為持續的對抗成本,低於做出痛苦的妥協。伊朗特別認為,美國根本性地誤判了其能力和決心,因此需要定期升級以挑戰西方關於伊朗虛弱的敘事。從戰略角度來看,這表明短期內外交解決方案的可能性不大,要求政策制定者為週期性的對抗和加劇的區域不穩定性做好準備。

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