Despite significant damage to its naval fleet, shipyards, and production facilities from recent strikes, Iran is expected to quickly reconstitute its military industrial base. This reconstitution relies heavily on importing dual-use components, such as machine tools, drone parts, and marine engines, through alternative routes like Pakistan or China. To counter this threat, the report advises that policymakers must extend sanctions mechanisms—particularly 'no reexport' clauses—and proactively engage third countries with direct access to Iran. Furthermore, monitoring allied firms dealing with key suppliers in China and Turkey is crucial to slowing down and raising the cost of necessary procurements.
How the Iran War Will Upend the Global Economy
English Summary
The escalation of the conflict in the Persian Gulf, particularly the targeting of upstream gas fields, guarantees significant and lasting global economic disruption. The key evidence is the destruction of critical energy infrastructure, which necessitates years of costly reconstruction, even if a cease-fire is achieved. Should the conflict continue, the risk of further resource destruction remains high. Policymakers must anticipate prolonged global instability and supply chain shocks stemming from energy scarcity, requiring strategic planning for resource diversification and economic resilience.
中文摘要
波斯灣衝突的升級，特別是針對上游天然氣田的攻擊，必然會導致全球經濟出現重大且持久的動盪。關鍵證據在於，即使達成停火，關鍵能源基礎設施的破壞仍需要耗費數年時間進行昂貴的重建。若衝突持續，資源進一步遭到破壞的風險依然極高。政策制定者必須預期長期全球不穩定性，以及源於能源短缺的供應鏈衝擊，這要求其為資源多元化和經濟韌性制定戰略規劃。
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