Despite significant damage to its naval fleet, shipyards, and production facilities from recent strikes, Iran is expected to quickly reconstitute its military industrial base. This reconstitution relies heavily on importing dual-use components, such as machine tools, drone parts, and marine engines, through alternative routes like Pakistan or China. To counter this threat, the report advises that policymakers must extend sanctions mechanisms—particularly 'no reexport' clauses—and proactively engage third countries with direct access to Iran. Furthermore, monitoring allied firms dealing with key suppliers in China and Turkey is crucial to slowing down and raising the cost of necessary procurements.
Trump Has Got Europe All Wrong
English Summary
The article argues that Donald Trump views the European Union not as a partner, but as a target for fragmentation. This hostile stance is evidenced by his escalating rhetoric, which has moved from simple disdain to outright hatred for the bloc. Furthermore, leaked drafts of the 2025 National Security Strategy reveal explicit objectives to 'pull' member states away from the EU, a policy mirrored by considering high tariffs on European exports. Policymakers must anticipate that US strategy will prioritize destabilization and division within the EU, rather than promoting unified transatlantic cooperation.
中文摘要
本文主張，唐納德·川普（Donald Trump）並未將歐盟視為合作夥伴，反而將其視為一個需要被瓦解的目標。這種敵意立場體現在他日益升級的言論中，其語氣已從單純的輕蔑轉變為對整個歐盟的公然憎恨。此外，洩露的《2025年國家安全戰略》草案揭示了明確的目標，即「拉離」成員國與歐盟的關係，此政策也體現在考慮對歐洲出口商品徵收高額關稅上。政策制定者必須預期，美國的戰略重點將是促成歐盟內部的去穩定化和分裂，而非促進統一的跨大西洋合作。
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