ThinkTankWeekly

The Scramble for the Open Seas

Foreign Affairs | 2026-09-30 | china_indopacific

Topics: AI, China, Climate, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, United States

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English Summary

The international maritime order, which has historically guaranteed freedom of navigation, is rapidly collapsing due to great power competition and institutional failure. Key evidence includes rising unilateral claims (e.g., China in the South China Sea, Russia in the Arctic), attempts by states to impose tolls on critical chokepoints (Hormuz, Malacca), and the race to exploit deep-sea mineral resources. If states continue to assert ownership over international waters and resources, global commerce will face severe disruption, leading to a new era of seaborne conflict and making the world's oceans far more dangerous and volatile.

中文摘要

國際海洋秩序歷來保障著航行自由,但目前正因大國競爭和制度性失靈而迅速瓦解。關鍵證據包括單邊主張的增加(例如中國在南海、俄羅斯在北極),各國試圖對關鍵海峽(如霍爾木茲、馬六甲)徵收過路費,以及爭奪深海礦產資源的競賽。如果各國持續主張對國際水域和資源的擁有權,全球貿易將面臨嚴重中斷,導致一個新的海上衝突時代,使世界海洋變得更加危險和動盪。

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