ThinkTankWeekly

The Coming Quantum National Security Crisis

Foreign Affairs | 2026-06-17 | china_indopacific

Topics: AI, China, Cybersecurity, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Nuclear, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

Visit original source

ThinkTankWeekly provides a curated entry and summary only. Full text and PDF remain on the publisher's website.

English Summary

Quantum technologies represent a critical national security inflection point, capable of breaking current global encryption standards and enabling advanced military capabilities like GPS-denied navigation. The threat is immediate, as adversaries, particularly China, are already harvesting encrypted data today while rapidly developing local quantum systems to circumvent US technological dominance. Policy must urgently mandate the transition of all critical infrastructure to quantum-resistant cryptography globally, secure the domestic 'quantum stack' through export controls, and develop contingency plans for potential early decryption of historical secrets.

中文摘要

量子技術代表著一個關鍵的國家安全轉捩點,它具備破解現行全球加密標準的能力,並能實現如「GPS訊號受限導航」等先進軍事能力。此威脅已迫在眉睫,因為敵對勢力,特別是中國,目前正在收集加密數據,同時正快速發展本土量子系統以規避美國的技術主導地位。政策制定必須緊急要求全球所有關鍵基礎設施轉向抗量子密碼學(quantum-resistant cryptography),透過出口管制確保國內「量子堆疊」(quantum stack)的安全,並為潛在的歷史機密提前解密情景制定應變計畫。

Related Entries

  1. 1.
    2026-07-24 | defense | 2026-W30 | Topics: Indo-Pacific, United States

    The White House (via OMB) strongly protests Congressional efforts within the FY 2027 NDAA to prohibit the purchase of warships from foreign shipyards. The Administration argues that these restrictions undermine national security by limiting flexibility and hindering its strategy of leveraging allied yards, such as in the 'Finland model,' to drive investment into U.S. shipbuilding capacity. This signals a significant policy shift toward integrating international partners into advanced naval construction, suggesting the Pentagon is prepared to bypass traditional domestic build requirements for future combat vessels.

    Read at USNI

  2. 2.
    2026-07-24 | china_indopacific | 2026-W30 | Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Nuclear, Russia, United States

    The Western Pacific remains a highly active theater defined by sustained U.S.-led military exercises and escalating great power competition. Key evidence includes continuous joint operations, such as RIMPAC 2026 in Hawaii and the deployment of CSGs into the South China Sea, juxtaposed with increased naval activity from both China (PLAN task groups) and Russia near Japan's critical straits. These movements underscore a strategic push by non-allied powers to assert presence and challenge regional norms. Policy implications dictate that allied nations must maintain robust multilateral cooperation and interoperability to safeguard freedom of navigation and manage escalating tensions in the Indo-Pacific.

    Read at USNI

  3. 3.
    2026-07-24 | middle_east | 2026-W30 | Topics: AI, China, Europe, Middle East, NATO, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, United States

    The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.

    Read at Foreign Affairs

  4. 4.
    2026-07-24 | economy | 2026-W30 | Topics: Middle East, Trade, United States

    The article argues that current market borrowing costs are rising independently of the Federal Reserve's policy stance, challenging the assumption that the Fed controls all rates. Evidence shows significant increases in key rates—such as 2-year Treasuries and mortgages—even while the effective federal funds rate remains steady. This divergence occurs because market rates reflect complex factors like inflation expectations, credit risk, and geopolitical volatility, which are outside the central bank's direct control. Policymakers should therefore recognize that sustainable rate moderation requires credible disinflation and disciplined government budgets, rather than relying solely on Fed intervention.

    Read at CATO

  5. 5.
    2026-07-24 | china_indopacific | 2026-W30 | Topics: China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, NATO, Taiwan, Trade, United States

    Despite recent trade setbacks, the U.S. retains fundamental structural economic leverage over China, particularly in high-tech sectors and intermediate goods. While Beijing can temporarily weaponize specific resources like rare earths, these chokepoints are vulnerable to diversification efforts by the West. The article argues that the most effective strategy is not unilateral action but coordinated multilateral pressure from U.S. allies across Asia and Europe. Washington must therefore coordinate its economic statecraft with partners to maximize damage to China’s export-dependent model.

    Read at Foreign Affairs