Despite significant damage to its naval fleet, shipyards, and production facilities from recent strikes, Iran is expected to quickly reconstitute its military industrial base. This reconstitution relies heavily on importing dual-use components, such as machine tools, drone parts, and marine engines, through alternative routes like Pakistan or China. To counter this threat, the report advises that policymakers must extend sanctions mechanisms—particularly 'no reexport' clauses—and proactively engage third countries with direct access to Iran. Furthermore, monitoring allied firms dealing with key suppliers in China and Turkey is crucial to slowing down and raising the cost of necessary procurements.
How the Iranian Regime Breaks
English Summary
Despite facing massive internal protests from hundreds of thousands of citizens, the Iranian regime has demonstrated unexpected internal cohesion. The key finding is that the elite, including both reformist and hardline factions, is working in concert to suppress dissent, showing no objection to the security forces' use of lethal force against civilians. This unity suggests that the regime's internal structure is more resilient than previously assessed. Policymakers should therefore adjust expectations regarding the speed or ease of a regime collapse, as internal fracturing remains unlikely based on current elite behavior.
中文摘要
儘管面臨數十萬民眾的大規模內部抗議，伊朗政權卻展現出出乎意料的內部凝聚力。關鍵發現是，包括改革派和強硬派在內的精英階層正在協同鎮壓異議，並對安全部隊對平民使用致命武力毫無異議。這表明政權的內部結構比先前評估的更具韌性。因此，政策制定者應調整對政權崩潰速度或難度的預期，因為根據目前的精英行為，內部分裂的可能性仍然很低。
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