The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Heartland vs. Rimland
English Summary
The geopolitical landscape reflects a modern Heartland vs. Rimland conflict, where a loose, transactional Eurasian axis (led by China) challenges the US-anchored maritime order. This heartland does not rely on traditional conquest but instead weaponizes global interdependence—using cyberattacks and economic ties to weaken rimland alliances from within. While the rimland coalition is powerful, its internal divisions are exploitable; therefore, the primary strategic challenge for Washington must be rebuilding a resilient order that governs interdependence rather than merely containing armies. To succeed, US policy must fuse loose coalitions into a system that strengthens free societies and protects against coercion while resisting its own tendency toward illiberal protectionism.
中文摘要
地緣政治格局反映了現代的內陸核心區（Heartland）與周邊地帶（Rimland）之間的衝突，其中一個鬆散、實用主義的歐亞軸心（以中國為首）正在挑戰由美國錨定的海上秩序。這個「核心區」並非依賴傳統的征服，而是將全球互依性武器化——利用網路攻擊和經濟聯繫從內部削弱周邊地帶的聯盟。雖然周邊地帶的聯盟力量強大，但其內部分歧是可被利用的；因此，華盛頓的首要戰略挑戰必須是重建一個治理互依性的韌性秩序，而不僅僅是遏制軍事力量。為成功，美國政策必須將鬆散的聯盟整合為一個能強化自由社會、抵禦強制手段的體系，同時也要抵抗自身傾向於非自由主義式保護主義的趨勢。
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