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China’s Long Twilight

Foreign Affairs | 2026-10-05 | china_indopacific

Topics: China, Climate, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, Ukraine, United States

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English Summary

The article argues that China faces a profound systemic crisis stemming from the intersection of rapid demographic decline and political rigidity. Key evidence includes a falling population, a surging elderly cohort, and the CCP's centralization of power under a single leader, which has replaced flexible technocratic rule with dogmatic orthodoxy. This combination is severely eroding China's governance capacity, making it increasingly brittle and unable to sustainably address social challenges or transition its economy away from export dependence. Strategically, this suggests that China's future trajectory is one of internal decline, limiting its long-term global power projection.

中文摘要

本文論述中國面臨一場深刻的體系危機,其根源在於快速的人口結構衰退與政治僵化之間的交匯。關鍵證據包括人口下降、高齡族群激增,以及中國共產黨在單一領導人下對權力的集中化,這取代了靈活的技術官僚治理,轉變為教條式的正統主義。這種組合嚴重侵蝕了中國的治理能力,使其日益脆弱,難以持續應對社會挑戰,也難以擺脫對出口的依賴進行經濟轉型。從戰略角度來看,這暗示了中國的未來軌跡將是內部衰退,限制了其長期的全球權力投射。

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