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Beijing’s Next Play for the South China Sea

Foreign Affairs | 2026-07-29 | china_indopacific

Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Nuclear, Taiwan, Trade, United States

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English Summary

Beijing is shifting its South China Sea strategy from overt confrontations to quieter, systematic methods of asserting sovereignty and control. Key evidence includes flag planting on unoccupied sandbars and executing large-scale dredging projects, such as transforming Antelope Reef into a potential military outpost. These cumulative actions complicate the response calculus for coastal states, which may deem individual moves too minor to risk escalation. This consolidation threatens regional law and order by eroding established norms and undermines U.S. regional strategy by making it difficult for allies to rally against China's advances.

中文摘要

北京正在將其南海戰略從公開對抗轉向更為低調、系統性的主權主張與控制方式。關鍵證據包括在無人沙洲上豎立國旗,以及執行大規模的填海工程,例如將安特洛普礁(Antelope Reef)改造成潛在的軍事前哨站。這些累積性的行動使得沿岸國家難以計算應對策略,因為它們可能認為單一舉動過於微小,不值得冒升級衝突的風險。這種鞏固威脅了區域法律秩序,具體表現為侵蝕既定規範;同時也削弱了美國的區域戰略,使盟國難以聯合起來共同應對中國的進一步擴張。

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