ThinkTankWeekly

The Fog of Tech

Foreign Affairs | 2026-10-20 | defense

Topics: AI, China, Europe, Middle East, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Ukraine, United States

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English Summary

The article warns against the "technology trap," arguing that an excessive focus on advanced military technologies (AI, hypersonics) is shortsighted and dangerous. This technological myopia causes policymakers to overlook the unchanging, fundamental human and political elements of war, such as defining clear objectives and identifying the opponent's true center of gravity. Historically, technological advantage has failed to guarantee victory against complex insurgencies or determined adversaries. Therefore, policymakers must prioritize establishing clear strategic goals and understanding the political dimensions of conflict, rather than assuming that technological prowess alone will resolve geopolitical challenges.

中文摘要

本文警告「技術陷阱」的風險,指出過度專注於先進軍事技術(如人工智慧、極超音速武器)是短視且危險的。這種技術近視導致政策制定者忽略了戰爭中那些永恆不變、根本的人本與政治要素,例如設定明確的目標和識別敵方的真正戰略重心。歷史經驗顯示,單純的技術優勢並無法保證戰勝複雜的叛亂或堅決的對手。因此,政策制定者必須優先確立清晰的戰略目標,並深入理解衝突的政治層面,而非假設技術實力單獨就能解決地緣政治挑戰。

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