The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
How Multilateralism Can Survive
English Summary
The article analyzes the severe vulnerability of multilateral institutions to unilateral actions by major powers, citing recent hypothetical US withdrawals from key global accords, including the Paris Climate Accord, WHO, and WTO. This trend of institutional erosion poses a significant threat to global cooperation and established international norms. For multilateralism to survive, the global community must address the systemic weaknesses that allow nationalistic policies to undermine collective action. Policy strategies must focus on strengthening institutional resilience and developing mechanisms to enforce international commitments against political headwinds.
中文摘要
本文分析了多邊機構對於主要大國單邊行動所面臨的嚴重脆弱性，並以美國近期假設性退出巴黎氣候協定、世界衛生組織（WHO）和世界貿易組織（WTO）等關鍵全球協定為例。這種制度性侵蝕的趨勢，對全球合作和既有的國際規範構成了重大威脅。為使多邊主義得以存續，全球社群必須解決那些允許國家民族主義政策破壞集體行動的系統性弱點。政策策略必須著重於強化機構的韌性，並發展機制以抵抗政治阻力，確保國際承諾得以落實。
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