ThinkTankWeekly

What It Will Take to Change the Regime in Iran

Foreign Affairs | 2026-02-27 | middle_east

Topics: Middle East, United States

Visit original source

ThinkTankWeekly provides a curated entry and summary only. Full text and PDF remain on the publisher's website.

English Summary

The article argues that the Islamic Republic of Iran is currently at its most vulnerable point since its founding, suggesting significant internal and external pressures. Key evidence cited includes recent U.S./Israeli attacks that degraded Iran's military and nuclear capacity, coupled with widespread domestic uprisings and severe, unmanageable economic and environmental crises. These combined factors indicate that the regime's stability is severely compromised, implying that major policy shifts or coordinated international action may be necessary to fundamentally alter the political landscape of the country.

中文摘要

本文論點指出,伊朗伊斯蘭共和國目前正處於自成立以來最脆弱的時期,這源於內部和外部雙重壓力。文章援引的關鍵證據包括近期美/以色列的攻擊,這些攻擊削弱了伊朗的軍事和核能力;同時,國內爆發了廣泛的起義,並面臨嚴重且難以管理的經濟和環境危機。這些複合因素表明該政權的穩定性已受到嚴重動搖,暗示著必須進行重大的政策轉變或協調的國際行動,才能從根本上改變該國的政治格局。

Related Entries

  1. 1.

    The article outlines how a successful modern foreign policy career requires blending traditional diplomatic expertise with private sector acumen. Juster's career trajectory—from international law to high-stakes diplomacy (e.g., the Gulf War) and subsequently to the technology sector—demonstrates this synthesis. Key evidence includes his work managing complex negotiations under duress and his involvement in co-founding the U.S.-India High Technology Group. The implication for policy is that effective geopolitical strategy must actively integrate private sector knowledge and technological considerations to manage modern economic and security challenges.

    Read at CFR

  2. 2.
    2026-05-18 | europe | 2026-W20 | Topics: Europe, Middle East, Russia, Ukraine

    The analysis suggests that Russia's ability to sustain its war effort in Ukraine is facing increasing internal and external pressures. Key evidence points to a tightening economic crisis, evidenced by widespread blackouts and a noticeable scaling back of traditional military displays. Furthermore, the discussion highlights Putin's increasing isolation and micromanagement, suggesting that the strategic initiative may be slipping out of Moscow's control. Policymakers should monitor these signs of internal strain, as they indicate potential vulnerabilities and a possible shift in Russia's military and geopolitical calculus.

    Read at Chatham House

  3. 3.
    2026-05-18 | economy | 2026-W20 | Topics: Europe, United States, Economy

    The Brookings report argues that closing long-term fiscal deficits cannot be achieved solely by taxing high earners or corporations. Analysis shows that the required savings necessitate broad-based tax increases that would significantly impact middle and lower-income families, as targeted taxes on the wealthy are insufficient. The report notes that high-tax OECD nations achieve high revenues through broad consumption taxes (like VAT) rather than exclusively through highly progressive taxes on the rich. Consequently, any major tax-funded deficit solution would impose a substantial burden on the working class, potentially without the comprehensive social benefits enjoyed by European counterparts.

    Read at Brookings

  4. 4.
    2026-05-18 | china_indopacific | 2026-W20 | Topics: AI, China, Climate, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Nuclear, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, Ukraine, United States

    The analysis concludes that China will hold the upper hand at the upcoming Trump-Xi summit, leveraging its dominance over critical minerals, rare earths, and magnet supply chains. This geopolitical leverage, combined with global instability (such as the Iran conflict), allows Beijing to dictate terms and buy time to consolidate its technological and industrial self-sufficiency. Strategically, the U.S. must avoid granting China a managed equilibrium by maintaining 'maximum pressure' on key sectors like AI and tech, rather than seeking broad agreements that could undermine American leadership.

    Read at CFR

  5. 5.
    2026-05-18 | middle_east | 2026-W20 | Topics: Middle East, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

    The article argues that the ongoing Iran War has triggered a severe global hunger crisis, exacerbated by U.S. aid cuts and policy neglect, pushing millions to the brink of starvation. Key evidence includes the termination of U.S. support in countries like Afghanistan, Somalia, and Yemen, coupled with supply chain disruptions and massive cost increases across the region. Policy recommendations are urgent: the U.S. must immediately deploy its $5.4 billion in unspent humanitarian funds, establish a humanitarian corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, and reinstate life-saving aid to critical nations.

    Read at CFR