ThinkTankWeekly

What’s next for US-China relations after Xi Jinping’s state visit?

Brookings | 2026-09-30 | tech

Topics: AI, China, Cybersecurity, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, Ukraine, United States

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English Summary

The analysis suggests that despite high-level state visits, US-China relations remain fundamentally defined by intense competition, driven by a strategic 'export control or self-resilience race' in critical technologies. Key evidence points to the ongoing struggle over semiconductors, rare earths, and AI, rendering diplomatic concepts like 'constructive strategic stability' more as signals to regional allies than genuine frameworks for cooperation. For policy, the primary implication is that stability will not come from grand agreements, but from mitigating technological choke points by diversifying supply chains and managing the escalating, volatile competition in advanced fields like AI.

中文摘要

本分析指出,儘管舉行了高層級國家互訪,美中關係的本質仍由激烈的競爭所定義,其驅動力是關鍵技術領域中圍繞「出口管制與自主韌性競賽」的戰略博弈。關鍵證據顯示,爭奪半導體、稀土和人工智慧(AI)的鬥爭仍在持續,使得「建設性戰略穩定」等外交概念,更像是對區域盟友的訊號,而非真正的合作框架。從政策層面來看,主要啟示是穩定性不會源於宏大的協定,而是必須透過多元化供應鏈和管理先進領域(如AI)不斷升級、波動的競爭,來緩解技術瓶頸。

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