The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
How the Iran war benefits China’s global ambitions
English Summary
The Iran war has unexpectedly strengthened China's global strategic position by forcing the US to deplete resources and political capital while China preserves strength and focuses on technological competition. By remaining outside the conflict, China is filling the role of economic benefactor to developing nations, dominating renewable energy technologies, and leveraging Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz to enhance its economic centrality. The conflict reinforces China's narrative of inevitable rise and US decline, particularly pressuring Taiwan through messaging that the weakened US cannot be relied upon for defense. America must restore strategic discipline, reinvest in alliances, and concentrate on technological advancement to contest China's vision of global leadership and prevent these Chinese gains from becoming permanent.
中文摘要
伊朗戰爭意外地強化了中國的全球戰略地位，其方式是迫使美國耗盡資源和政治資本，而中國則得以保持實力並專注於技術競爭。透過保持在衝突之外，中國正扮演著對發展中國家提供經濟援助的角色，主導可再生能源技術，並利用伊朗對霍爾木茲海峽的控制來提升自身的經濟核心地位。這場衝突強化了中國「必然崛起、美國衰落」的敘事，特別透過傳遞訊息來對台灣構成壓力，暗示一個虛弱的美國無法作為可靠的防禦依據。美國必須恢復戰略紀律，重新投入盟友關係，並集中於技術進步，才能挑戰中國的全球領導力願景，並防止中國取得的這些優勢成為永久性的。
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