Despite significant damage to its naval fleet, shipyards, and production facilities from recent strikes, Iran is expected to quickly reconstitute its military industrial base. This reconstitution relies heavily on importing dual-use components, such as machine tools, drone parts, and marine engines, through alternative routes like Pakistan or China. To counter this threat, the report advises that policymakers must extend sanctions mechanisms—particularly 'no reexport' clauses—and proactively engage third countries with direct access to Iran. Furthermore, monitoring allied firms dealing with key suppliers in China and Turkey is crucial to slowing down and raising the cost of necessary procurements.
President Trump’s Approval on Inflation Is Now Worse Than President Biden’s Ever Was
English Summary
Trump's approval rating regarding inflation has hit a historic low (-44%), surpassing the worst points recorded during both his and Biden's presidencies. This decline is attributed to persistent price increases, driven by energy shocks and geopolitical conflicts, which have pushed consumer prices above cumulative year-on-year wage gains. Economically, the failure to achieve falling prices, despite campaign promises, is eroding public confidence. Strategically, this deteriorating affordability trend poses a significant political risk for Trump, as economic stability and cost of living are paramount concerns for voters in the current election cycle.
中文摘要
川普就通貨膨脹的支持率已跌至歷史低點（-44%），超越了其任期和拜登任期記錄的最低點。此下滑歸因於持續的物價上漲，這些上漲源於能源衝擊和地緣政治衝突，導致消費物價超過了累積的年增工資增長。從經濟角度來看，儘管其曾做出相關的競選承諾，但未能實現物價回落，正正在侵蝕公眾信心。從策略角度來看，這種惡化的可負擔性趨勢對川普構成重大的政治風險，因為經濟穩定和生活成本是當前選舉週期中選民至關重要的關注點。
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