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Hunger Warfare and a Fertilizer Crisis Are Straining Global Food Supplies

CFR | 2026-09-08 | economy

Topics: Climate, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Nuclear, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

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English Summary

Global food supplies face unprecedented strain due to a confluence of shocks: conflict-driven attacks on agricultural infrastructure, fertilizer scarcity from geopolitical chokepoints, and adverse climate forecasts (El Niño). These simultaneous shocks create compounding risks, particularly for the 2027 and 2028 growing seasons, as the world witnesses the weaponization of food access. The systemic vulnerability requires national security planning to integrate climate risk, commodity volatility, and chokepoint geopolitics. Policymakers must treat global food and fertilizer supply chains as critical strategic assets, necessitating new forms of deterrence against food weaponization.

中文摘要

由於多重衝擊的疊加,全球糧供應正面臨前所未有的壓力:包括衝突導致的農業基礎設施攻擊、地緣政治瓶頸點造成的肥料短缺,以及不利的氣候預測(如厄爾尼諾)。這些同步衝擊構成了累積性風險,特別是針對 2027 年和 2028 年的生長季節,全球正目睹糧食獲取被武器化。這種系統性脆弱性要求國家安全規劃必須整合氣候風險、商品價格波動性以及瓶頸點的地緣政治考量。政策制定者必須將全球糧食和肥料供應鏈視為關鍵戰略資產,這有必要建立新的威懾機制,以應對糧食武器化。

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