The report argues that public procurement is a useful, yet bounded, governance instrument for middle powers dependent on foreign frontier AI. By embedding contractual guarantees—such as model access for evaluation and termination clauses—into state contracts, governments can mitigate risks like vendor lock-in and data sovereignty vulnerabilities. However, the analysis finds that individual state demand provides limited leverage; therefore, the key strategic recommendation is that middle powers must coordinate their procurement efforts. This collective action is necessary to aggregate demand, share evaluation capabilities, and strengthen their collective bargaining position against dominant AI providers.
2026-W37
This digest page is part of ThinkTankWeekly's portal index. It summarizes notable reports and links readers to the original source websites.
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2.Implementation and Outcome Evaluation of LA DOOR, a Proposition 47–Funded Program in Los Angeles: Cohort 3 Final Evaluation Report (RAND)
The evaluation of the LA DOOR program confirms that proactive, health-focused diversion initiatives can significantly reduce recidivism among vulnerable, justice-involved populations. Key evidence shows that participants who maintained engagement for at least two months experienced relatively low reconviction rates (15%), yet the program struggled with persistent systemic challenges, notably housing instability and mixed substance use outcomes. Policy implications suggest that maximizing the effectiveness of similar Proposition 47 initiatives requires sustained, coordinated investment in stable housing and comprehensive community services to overcome implementation barriers and ensure long-term client support.
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The study concludes that while the Los Angeles County Public Defender's Office (LACPD) utilizes a Case Complexity System (CCS) to manage workload, the system is structurally flawed and often misaligns case complexity with actual attorney effort. Analysis using time studies and expert panels revealed that the CCS underestimates the demands of certain serious cases and is limited by poor data quality and lack of proportionality. Policy recommendations emphasize recalibrating the CCS and, critically, formalizing support staff roles (e.g., paralegals) to minimize non-legal administrative tasks, thereby ensuring constitutionally adequate representation and informing multiyear staffing plans.
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The report argues that significant inadvertent escalation risks exist between NATO and Russia, stemming from the integration of conventional and nuclear doctrines in modern networked warfare. These risks are driven by the proliferation of dual-capable systems and advanced C4ISR operations, which blur the lines between conventional targeting and existential nuclear threats, making adversary intentions difficult to interpret. While effective conventional deterrence requires rapid, decisive action, this imperative directly conflicts with the need for restraint to prevent miscalculation. Policymakers must therefore increase sensitivity to potential operational 'blind spots' during planning, recognizing that while defense investments are necessary, the risk of escalation is inherent to the current strategic environment.
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The article argues that U.S.-China relations are shifting from a zero-sum 'strategic competition' narrative toward a pragmatic 'constructive strategic stability.' This détente is sustained not only by high-level agreements but primarily by powerful structural forces, including the prohibitive cost of total economic decoupling and the catastrophic risks of military conflict, which mandate interdependence. For policymakers, the implication is that the focus must be on building a stable 'floor' by reinforcing concrete mechanisms, such as improving military-to-military communications and reducing economic friction. This structural imperative suggests that the current period of stability is likely to endure, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.
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The article argues that despite repeated U.S. economic sanctions and recent military strikes, the Iranian regime possesses significant resilience and cannot be successfully strangled by external economic coercion. This resilience is rooted in the state's ability to offload economic pain onto ordinary citizens and firms, coupled with micro-level adaptations, such as maintaining large industrial inventories to mitigate supply chain shocks. While sanctions have severely impacted macroeconomic indicators, the regime's political structure remains intact because it has successfully managed the economic crisis to maintain its internal power base. Policymakers should therefore recognize that economic warfare alone is insufficient to achieve regime collapse, necessitating a strategic reassessment of sanctions' effectiveness and potential unintended consequences.
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The article argues that global jihadism has fundamentally lost its ideological salience and transnational capability, despite the initial shock of 9/11. Key evidence suggests that major regional conflicts, such as those in the Middle East, have failed to trigger the expected jihadi surge, largely due to the loss of safe havens and sophisticated organizational infrastructure. Consequently, the policy implication is a strategic pivot away from massive, ground-based counter-insurgency wars toward intelligence-led, targeted operations, utilizing special forces and allied cooperation to disrupt decentralized networks.
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The analysis concludes that the core al-Qaeda organization has effectively ceased to exist, primarily due to strategic failure, internal divisions, and a profound loss of local support among Muslim populations. Key evidence points to the group's inability to maintain coherence, exacerbated by the radical divergence of affiliates like ISIS, and the sustained intelligence cooperation among U.S. allies. For policy, the report advises that officials must cease overstating the threat posed by remaining affiliates and instead focus on intelligence and law-enforcement collaboration to address localized jihadist threats, rather than pursuing a vague, overarching 'war on terrorism.'
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The article argues that Western sanctions on Russia are not a lost cause, but their effectiveness is undermined by Russia's ability to utilize a 'shadow fleet' of tankers that bypass existing price caps. This evasion relies on loopholes in international enforcement, particularly concerning vessel ownership and insurance requirements. To restore pressure, the strategy must shift to Europe closing these gaps: restricting the supply of replacement vessels and pressuring flag states to enforce rigorous insurance standards. By making the shadow fleet financially and legally unviable, Western powers can significantly reduce Moscow's ability to finance its war efforts.
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While Russia currently punches above its weight by leveraging global fragmentation, its military heft, and control over vital resources, this advantage is predicated on continued international chaos. The article argues that this 'besieged fortress' model is unsustainable, predicting that a return to global stability would expose Russia's deep structural weaknesses, particularly in its high-tech and civilian sectors. For long-term development, Russia must pivot away from perpetual confrontation and instead pursue limited cooperation, especially with the EU. Failure to modernize its innovation infrastructure and shift its foreign policy toward engagement, rather than rivalry, poses the greatest risk to its future.
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The article argues that the U.S. is undermining its industrial policy by adopting an overly hostile stance toward foreign investment, particularly from China. To achieve global competitiveness in critical sectors like chips and EVs, the U.S. must selectively welcome foreign capital and know-how, recognizing that foreign expertise has historically been vital for American industrial growth. Current regulatory bodies, such as CFIUS, are too restrictive, focusing on blocking perceived risk rather than assessing overall national security benefit. Policy recommendations include reforming these screening mechanisms to weigh risks and rewards, treating allied capital differently, and developing a framework that allows strategic partnerships with countries of concern like China.
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The publication argues that while the world successfully navigated the recent 'Iran Shock' without a catastrophic energy crisis, this relative stability is deceptive and should not breed complacency. The immediate avoidance of a price shock was due to temporary buffers, including the utilization of bypass pipelines, massive IEA stock releases, and critically, China significantly reducing its global oil demand. However, the analysis warns that these buffers are eroding, emphasizing that energy remains a devastating geopolitical weapon. Policymakers must recognize that the threat of energy weaponization is transforming national security and requires continuous strategic vigilance.
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The article argues that the most profound impact of the global War on Terror has been not military, but domestic, fundamentally reshaping U.S. society and politics. Key evidence highlights that the conflict generated staggering human and financial costs while fostering a pervasive culture of fear, which diminished social cohesion and fueled xenophobia and anti-immigrant sentiment. Crucially, the security state has facilitated an uncontrolled expansion of executive power, allowing the government to curtail civil liberties under the guise of domestic safety. Policymakers must therefore conduct a reckoning with this political legacy, recognizing that the persistent threat narrative has been used to undermine democratic norms and political pluralism.
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The Houthis have launched a major military offensive in Yemen, capturing critical strategic ports like Mokha and Perim Island, marking a significant shift in regional power. This escalation, which is viewed as an extension of Iranian influence, aims to establish Houthi control over the Bab el Mandeb Strait, thereby threatening global energy transit and opening a 'second front' in the broader Iran conflict. Because the anti-Houthi coalition remains militarily fragmented and lacks decisive external support, a purely military solution is unlikely. Consequently, external powers must prioritize containing the Houthi threat while the local partners urgently address their internal political divisions to prevent wider regional upheaval.